Weekly Update – January 23, 2012
There’s an old adage you may have heard recently which says: “As goes January, so goes the year.” What is this January barometer all about? According to the Stock Traders Almanac, the month of January tends to predict the direction of the market with an 88.5% accuracy ratio, with only seven major errors record since 1950.[i] Those aren’t bad numbers.
What causes the “January effect”? Most sources attribute it to a calendar-related anomaly in the financial markets where security prices increase in the month of January because investors sell losing positions in December and reposition themselves after the first of the year, or vice-versa.[ii] While this is certainly not exact science, and it is far too early to know if January will accurately predict the rest of the year, it is interesting to note.
So far, the Bulls are really showing off. With seven trading days left to go in January, the benchmark indexes are all up between 4% and 7%. The S&P 500’s 4.5% YTD gain marks its best start since 1987![iii] So does this bull have legs? Skeptics will tell you it doesn’t and idealists will tell you it does. We’d like to tell you that we don’t know. We’re not clairvoyant. (Sorry, we know you wish we were.) What we do know is that markets don’t move up or down in a straight line, and we won’t be surprised if we experience a pullback in the weeks ahead. This is not something we fear; it’s just the nature of the stock market.
There are both positive and negative factors at work right now, and we are monitoring many of them. Europe is still on the map, and our economy is growing at a slower-than-average rate that leaves it somewhat vulnerable to external shocks. At the same time, we see the strengthening in various sectors such as financials, basic materials, durable goods, and technology[iv] as reasons to sustain our optimism that both the stock market and the economy will fare well in 2012.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
Tuesday – Redbook
Wednesday – Pending Home Sales Index, EIA Petroleum Status Report, FOMC Meeting Announcement
Thursday – Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, New Home Sales, Leading Indicators
Friday – GDP, Consumer Sentiment
Would you like to discuss your portfolio of investments and what is impacting it?